drop rate probability – mobs2kill

Aside

Probability and Measure As there are so many rare items in MMO games, and the probability of getting them varies, but is generally 1% I started wondering how many kills are needed to get an almost certain chance of getting an item.

With a 1% drop rate it might seem on the surface (when I disengage my brain) that killing the creature 100 items will get you the item. Not so, and the math is somewhat tricksy.

WowWiki: An item has a 1% droprate from a specific mob, which means that, on average, one will drop for every 100 kills. This does not mean that it’s guaranteed to drop by the time you’ve killed 100 mobs — it’s an average.

Thankfully somebody has already created a tool which does just that – mobs2kill. What I like about this little webtool is that you can input the drop rate, and what certainty you wish to achieve, and mobs2kill will tell you approx how many attempts are needed. So when considering that some Legendary items require 2 items to drop, each with a 1% drop rate, it makes sense why these things are exceedingly rare.

So to have an almost certain (99%) chance of a 1% drop item that you are farming, you need to kill the mob 459 (ahem 458.21) times. Wow. That said, if you’re happier with 50% overall chance, then you’re only up for 69 kills. For that one item.

And the probability of having the item after 100 kills for a 1% drop rate is a touch higher than 63%. Unsurprisingly the overall odds of having the item get better with each attempt, despite the individual instances of the chance staying at 1%. Farm. Farm. Farm.

Ramifications of Guildie Blogs

Sal is a guildie of mine and she’s started a blog – They Call Me Sal. It is a very personal and honest set of observations about being a wow’er, and also peripheral life stuff.

Her current topic is How do you name your wow toon? I’ve ranted a bit on that many years ago, but I’ll post again now too. See further down.

Gen is a guildie, and the current GM no less (ah the endless joys of being in leadership). Her blog – Untamed Hell Cat. Gen is a tad more ranty than Sal outwardly, and loves a good joke at the expense of all of us, a meme or two, or idiots in trade chat and LFR. Like Sal’s blog it is also worth a read.

Hellcat’s post is almost too much Drood-speek for me to type – oh flame kitteh how i miss choo! Don’t take that as theme for all the content, it is a hat tip to Alamo (?name?)  and is contextual to the post topic.

insidious guild us nagrand

So what happens when guildies blog?

As a guild we’ve gone from strength to strength, even though there have been hiccups, arguments, and dummy spits. I’m interested in how many people within the guild have blogs, and what that might say about our age and demographics. If I get some stats and evidence to assert a theory I’ll certainly post here. It is easy however for me to say that I’m opinionated and the blog helps with that.

For many years I was the only regular blogger, and that gave me some capacity to write about events, or capacity to control when I did not to write about events. As a guild member though I do not expect to see incidents of the guild posted in public (or certainly not without compassionate consideration), and now that more of my guild are writing their own blogs I feel that the shoe is on the other foot. It is an interesting change in the balance.

A blog can be a soapbox, therapy, and all sorts of things. It may spark discussion, or cause issues of it’s own.

In our guild’s case I’ve not see any drama from bloggers, and I’ve hopefully not caused offense to those we care about. So for us there have yet to be any poor ramifications of guildie blogs. I know for certain that this is not always the case, and sometimes regular posts of that style can garner huge feedback. DramaMamas on WoW Insider is such a blog. I don’t blog for feedback, I do it for the joy of writing the blog. Frankly that is reflected in the small readership, and in a strange way having a small readership means that I can also say what I wish.

So there it all is – a set of wow bloggers virtually standing on our soapboxes, talking to the masses that pass by on the internet (I was going to say, “that pass by on the information superhighway”, but I think that term is as dead as floppy disks). Continue reading