Slowly is the only way to go

Thanks to a guildie (hello Tarc) I have completed the Nalak phase of the Legendary quest and am now killing bosses again in Throne of Thunder LFR for the x12 bling-things part. Twelve, that is better than Twenty; right?

Well yes and no. There is no indication that the drop rate is better or worse, unless you suspect that the change to an auto-drop from Lei-Shen might indicate that these little tokens were even more rare that the 20x odd of the previous type. I got the first one last night from Lei-Shen and I guess I’m ok with it taking 12 weeks to get the others. I like Legendaries to be hard and painful. Patch 5.4 will likely be out in production before I reach 12x drops, so I’ll hopefully be able to use the cloak in p5.4 content.

From a lore perspective I do not understand how it makes sense that Wrathion would ask for this many too. I mean there are 12 bosses, and these are rare things, and they drop from bosses only…and somehow we got 20x of them. No wonder Wrathion has us doing this, it is not logical in the setting. I bet he is amazed! Not a new theme though if I remember the Hand of Sulfuras correctly either.

Happy killing, TyphoonAndrew

drop rate probability – mobs2kill

Aside

Probability and Measure As there are so many rare items in MMO games, and the probability of getting them varies, but is generally 1% I started wondering how many kills are needed to get an almost certain chance of getting an item.

With a 1% drop rate it might seem on the surface (when I disengage my brain) that killing the creature 100 items will get you the item. Not so, and the math is somewhat tricksy.

WowWiki: An item has a 1% droprate from a specific mob, which means that, on average, one will drop for every 100 kills. This does not mean that it’s guaranteed to drop by the time you’ve killed 100 mobs — it’s an average.

Thankfully somebody has already created a tool which does just that – mobs2kill. What I like about this little webtool is that you can input the drop rate, and what certainty you wish to achieve, and mobs2kill will tell you approx how many attempts are needed. So when considering that some Legendary items require 2 items to drop, each with a 1% drop rate, it makes sense why these things are exceedingly rare.

So to have an almost certain (99%) chance of a 1% drop item that you are farming, you need to kill the mob 459 (ahem 458.21) times. Wow. That said, if you’re happier with 50% overall chance, then you’re only up for 69 kills. For that one item.

And the probability of having the item after 100 kills for a 1% drop rate is a touch higher than 63%. Unsurprisingly the overall odds of having the item get better with each attempt, despite the individual instances of the chance staying at 1%. Farm. Farm. Farm.

Whine about Bindings of the Windseeker

As part of the ongoing addiction to repetition – I’ve been farming for the Bindings of the Windseeker, which are the rare drop parts of Thunderfury. Actually I’ve been farming it ever since a mate was, and I went along to make the fight go easier. After seeing that I could smash the bosses solo, I decided that it was time, and since then it has been a very long time in farming. This post is a dummy spit to share the frustration of a small drop rate item. /spit.

Baron Geddon seems to know when my DK enters Molten Core and he throws away anything useful, especially the Binding. I even checked recently that I was killing the correct boss, as it seemed impossible to still be missing the drop. Not impossible, just unlucky. One day I’ll have Thunderfury, one day.

It would be great to experience the lore of the Thunderfury creation. I still have a sense of satisfaction from having the original Hand of Rag legendary, and while greedy – Thunderfury is another of the iconic in-game weapons. Continue reading