GuildOx Stats on WoW Raid Decline

GuildOx have used their outstanding stats to create a story around the frequency of raids being conducted by guilds. As could be expected, guild raids appear to be in gradual decline.

GuildOx (..) has discovered that raiding guild activity has fallen 50% since the beginning of 2012.

This is by no means a doom and gloom message for raiders. Most raiders would already accept a large drop-off in attendance and activity as a reality, and one that reflects the length of time in the game since the last content patch for Cataclysm. Not shattering news, except to see the an approximate value indicate the drop-off is around 50% since the start of 2012, and since mid April the figures really hit a steep decline.

raid graph decline from GuildOx

As the stats continue we’ll likely see the population drop far further, especially in response to a release date. In previous years my (various) guilds have taken the announcement of the release date as a point in time to decide our plans, and that typically calls for an ending to raids in prep for the new expansion.

The stats do not include LFR or include content which is not current, so while the graph is an indicator it should be taken with due consideration. The real message here is not new, it is one of understanding the degrees involved which is interesting; rather than worrying that a decline exists.

The guildox writers indicate that a jump start is needed when MoP is released, which is a fair expectation and fair desire. What is uncertain is how many raiders are needed to return to Warcraft when MoP is released so that the raid community can thrive again. Population doom and gloom abound in the blogs and forums, but MoP can still be expected to sell well, as it is a Blizzard product after all and many raiders return for the new game each expansion. Will the bounce be enough to ensure a thriving raid community? Not sure.

What I’d love to see is the same graph with all the expansions plotted to demonstrate the population behaviour from say 2006 to 2012. A holistic view, with the spikes for each batch of raid content would be interesting.

World of Warcraft Cosmic Map, showing Azeroth ...

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